August 21, 2009
Why demo forex trading can be dangerous and misleading
Hello Everyone,
Ok, lets talk about something that I'm continually asked about…
"Why is it that my demo trading goes really well and then when I switch over to real money things fall apart?"
Rather than me write a long article I made a video instead.
To watch the video that explains why demo forex trading can be dangerous and misleading click here:
***Lets take a look at a new video that will highlight some trades you could have made off of the market reversal levels this past week.
To watch video highlights of trades from last week, simply click here:
Please note that the video could take a few minutes to play depending on you internet conection speed. If you are still having trouble please go to www.adobe.com and install the latest vesrion of their "Flash Player".
Hope this gives you some food for thought….
Until next week, peace and prosperity,
Jeff Wilde
***VERY IMPORTANT: If you are new to our forex market forecast service I urge you to get up to speed on how to get the most out of it. This will also explain what the abbreviations I use mean. To get all the details click this link:
Here is a video that will teach you how to get the most out of this newsletter. TO VIEW CLICK HERE:
***My highest reccomendation… Over the past 6 years I have only personally endorsed 1 forex program. If you don't already own this one, then I would highly reccommend that you check it out a.s.a.p. I have had many unsolicited thank you letters for mentioning this program. It is a must have in every traders "Bag Of Tricks", Anyway… To read more click here…
|
Key Market Reversal Levels for Aug 24 - Aug 28 |
|||||
|
GBP/USD |
EUR/USD |
USD/JPY |
GBP/JPY |
EUR/JPY |
|
| Turning Point Down #3 | 1.7250 | 1.4750 | 97.75 | 165.00 | 140.88 |
| Turning Point Down #2 | 1.7047 | 1.4676 | 96.54 | 160.50 | 138.66 |
| Turning Point Down #1 | 1.6691 | 1.4500 | 95.11 | 158.00 | 136.72 |
| Turning Point Up #1 | 1.6303 | 1.4191 | 93.00 | 152.87 | 132.80 |
| Turning Point Up #2 | 1.6174 | 1.4000 | 91.76 | 150.00 | 130.47 |
| Turning Point Up #3 | 1.5997 | 1.3831 | 91.00 | 147.10 | 127.78 |
| Intermediate Trend Direction |
Up | Up | Up | Up | Up |
| Major Trend Direction | Up | Up | Down | Up | Up |
| Comments | |||||
|
***VERY IMPORTANT: If you are new to our forex market forecast service I urge you to get up to speed on how to get the most out of it. This will also explain what the abbreviations I use mean. To get all the details click this link: Here is a video that will teach you how to get the most out of this newsletter. TO VIEW CLICK HERE: |
|||||
Filed under Blog, Forex Newsletter by Jeffrey Wilde



Comments on Why demo forex trading can be dangerous and misleading »
Jeff,
Just one minor suggestion.. I print out your market reversals every week to keep by my desk, (and Yes they really work) so I'd like to request you also have them as an attachment in a doc format to print out like I do…rather than having to cut and paste before printing (God that sounds lazy)… Maybe more people would actively use them if they were sitting on their desktop..
Thanks for all your good work..!!
Kevin
P.S. are you ever going to formalize the way you do your market reversals and sell it to the rest of the world…?? God forbid anything ever would happen to you, we and your knowledge would be lost forever…
Hi Dr Je3ff,
I am looking for an online FX broker and currently my research favours GFT. Currently have an account with CMC but they run the stops occasionally and saw about a 150 pip spike which didn't occur on any other chart I saw about a fortnight ago. Have looked at FXCM but their charting package seems a bit average and saw the spread go out to 5 pips yesterday on the EUR/USD before London started trading
My requirements include
1 - has an office in Australia and accepted by the local regulator - yes
2 - is debt free - yes
3 - has a good charting package - looks good from the demo I saw and will see for myself in the next few days
4 - has a small spread especially during slow times eg Asian session - they say 1 to 3 pips which has never been exceeded for the EUR/USD
5 - order placement from chart - yes
6 - has a good regulatory record - where do I check this?
Are there any other aspects to consider?
Kind regards
John
Hi Jeff
After your recent email I realised how thankless it must be to put as much effort into your videos, key market reversal levels and articles and not see much response. I wanted to provide some indication of my gratitude and appreciation. I only found your website by chance recently and have found it invaluable. I will be purchasing your trading system separately shortly. I will certainly try to pass on your details as best I can. I certainly hope you get the response you need and keep the emails and all the valuable advice rolling.
Thanks again.
Dave
Hello Jeff,
Thank you for the afford you put into making us better traders (and all this for free).
Although there is not many comments, I am sure that a lot of people appreciate your your work. The reversal points are very helpful and often very accurate, so anyone subscribed to your mailing list should pay close attention to them. They are even more powerful when combined with your systems.
Please, keep up with the excellent work.
Best regards,
Filip
Please, keep u
Here's a comment I received after my MP3 audio talking about the why demo trading results can be so different than live trading. I will also answer his comments as well.
Dr Jeff: Thanks so much for this info. It confirms my suspicions. The same
happens in trading equities. I tried not using stops for this reason. But it
only takes two traders working in concert to hammer you into oblivion. So
what's the counter to this unscrupulous behavior? I'm now using TradeStation
and like ForexTrader they both use Gains Brokerage for clearing their
trades. Does this mean I should be looking for some other firm or a
differenct time zone? Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.
Best regards, - Justin
Answer: Justin I wouldn't worry too much about 2 traders ganging up on you unless they have incredibly deep pockets. It takes some truly huge financial firepower as well as incredible skill and knowledge to really move the markets in a signifcant way.
I also prefer not to use stops as it can be risky, but I don't reccommend that for traders who have to walk away from the markets to do other things. One tactic is to move the stops much further away from the usual places every one else does. Yes it would appear you are risking more, but… You will get stopped out way less, which will be less costly in the long run.
One caveat with that strategy… It assumes that you are good at picking market direction and momentum. Otherwise, you will just end up getting stopped out at an even greater level.
Here's a great comment and bit of advice I just got in…
Hi Jeff, Hope all is well with you. enjoyed the video thoroughly!
Wonder if you recall an e-mail I sent you some couple years ago, a page from my journal, where I thought:
… "Trade in your demo account as if it were your real money. Trade your real money as if it were in a demo account."
So much of the trading process is psychological. This video nailed it right on Best wishes, Mohammad
Ref: "I also could really use your feedback and experiences in regards to
demo trading vs real trading"
Demo trading is, in my view, next to useless — for two important reasons:
1) you have no 'skin in the game' — no money on the line. Thus you do not experience the emotional part of real-time live trading. It's easy to demo trade but it does not reveal how you will behave under the stress of live trading. Things that are easy for you to do in demo can turn out to be impossible for you to do the same when you have money on the line.
2) Well, then, at least demo trading reveals how the system works, right?. Well, no it doesn't. Because nobody will demo trade for a period long enough to be statistically valid.
What will happen is either you'll have a couple of good demo weeks and be itching to get money in the game and go live to make those demo returns real, or you will have a poor couple of demo weeks and decide that the system is no good. A couple of weeks or a couple of months is not long enough to mean anything. All successful systems have losing periods. All successful systems have good periods. Which period are you in when you start demo trading? Which are you in when you go live? Which is around the corner? No way to know.
If you demo trade for a short time and go live based on good demo results, there is absolutely NO statistical reason to expect those results to continue. If you demo trade and give up, the system's winning streak might be right around the corner.
The point is that nobody can predict any market. The best a system can give you is a small statistical edge over the long term. Between now and 'the long term', the markets can go anywhere and do anything, the system can go up and down, and so can your results. What is the 'long term'? A good question that you need to ask and answer. For sure it is NOT a couple of weeks or a couple of months.
When you trade live, the first time you see an open trade profit that, to you, represents big money, you will be in an entirely different ball game from demo trading. 'Big money' to you might mean $200, it might mean $20,000 — whatever 'big money' is to you, when it's staring you in the face in an open trade, the desire to cash in and make that big money safe, to put it in the bank, is overwhelming. But if you cash in before the system rules say you should, you are destroying the very statistical expectancy that the system was designed to give you — you've now got short term reward, long term disaster.
If you see that same situation — 'big money' — on an open demo trade, chances are you'll want to go live tomorrow to stop 'missing out'.
You get the reverse, too. You're in a demo trade looking at a loss, your stop loss is approaching — how different is it when closing the trade doesn't actually cost you anything? Can you still close the trade when an exit signal costs you real money on a live trade? You're not going to know until you face it live.
If you get say 5 losses in a row in your demo account, does it mean you should trash the system? — it's going to feel like it. Another one to figure out the answer in advance…
If you get 5 winners in a row, are you set for life? — it's going to feel like it…
These are just some of the psychological considerations where demo trading cannot help.
My view is that you should only trade a system with real money. It can be a small account, or sub-account, set up for that purpose, but you need to have money on the line to know if you can trade that system. You should decide the time you will trade at that level, and you should stick to it — don't add money and don't stop trading until the pre-determined period is up. If you add money after a winning streak, you can be almost certain you will shortly suffer losing trades at the higher dollar level. If you stop trading after a string of losses, you can bet you will miss the recovery period that follows. If you set a long enough time period and have the discipline to trade through it, you will see both those things happen and be better prepared to trade bigger money. If you find you can't follow the rules, stop trading the system immediately before your capital bleeds away. Be aware of the purpose — which is to prove that you can trade that system. Not to prove that the system works. Satisfying yourself that the system works should have been done before you decided to trade it at all. The only way I know to do that is by backtesting — you need to know that the system has come out on top over a LONG period, which has included the various cycles all markets go through. You need to look at the size of the drawdowns and how long the system has taken to recover in the past. If you can live with those backtest results, you still can't expect the same results in the future, but it gives you an idea of how long a string of losing trades might be expected to last, and how much those losses could add up to. You need to decide in advance what you will do if in live trading the system exceeds previous worst-case drawdown periods and/or drawdown dollar amounts. Set a quit-level in advance and stick to it. Systems can break down. Be prepared for that largest quit-level loss, and trade right up to it. With that level of preparation, you stand a chance of finding the system that will work for you… It probably won't be the first system you try… But when you find it, AND prove you can trade it — THEN you're on the path.
Hey everyone, some awesome feedback. Keep it coming!!!
My entire trading experience has only been for 3 months now. But it has been with a live account. I'll admit my live account is a tiny one (compared to most trading accounts). My entire account balance does not even break the fourth digit (yet). Fortunately, my broker allows me to have any trade size.
The reason I have started with live money is to force myself to stay focus. I know I am lazy by nature (hey, at least I am honest), so if I cut myself any slack, like using just a demo account, I know I will start to pay less attention to details, and not to stay focused. And I just know I will not take as good a record as I do with live money account. Since my long term goal is to learn to be successful in trading, cutting myself slack now is only going to hamper my learning. So that's why I started with live account.
I consider whatever money I have now in my account just like tuition. If I blow it, it is just tuition. Fortunately, so far I am still breaking-even, despite having made just about every novice trading mistakes in the book (and perhaps even invented a few new ones). But at least I am reaching my initial goals, which are (1) to learn trading in a live account; and (2) to at least stay break-even for my first 3 to 6 months.
Ultimately, if I can prove to myself that I can at least double my test account, twice, then I can honestly say to myself that I can trade with more significant capital.
Here is a short note Jeff, to let you know that I am very appreciative of the time and effort you put into your FREE weekly blogs.
I look forward to the and use them in my trading every day.
I agree with the stops thing discussed above, the only way I have found to avoid being stomped out is to place my stops far out - past where I guess that they could be spiked by the broker.
I look at the trend (50 day) and place them where I see the tend reversed. This is generally around the 75 - 125 pip mark. Then I pray! I am not at my desk most of the day so when I return I always wonder if someone at the broker got a little frisky and there will be one of those spikes that only take place at the one broker.
Baring large market moves against me this has been the best way I have found to avoid being screwed to vigorously.
Keep up the good work and how about a hint or 2 about how you determine the "levels"?
Good day to you,
I am a big fan of yours and love what you do on your site(market reversal levels and lots more).
Regarding the topic of discuss, i dont just like demo trading and i never used it when learning.i traded with live cash inorder to get the real feeling of the market.Although lost some buck then,i made it back with profits.I got a special way of getting market reversal but found yours invaluable.Just keep up the good work and may God bless you….
Just received this comment and wanted to share it:
Hi Jeff, I hope all is well with you. I stopped using demo trading 6 weeks ago and now trade a micro account as a substitute to maintain that real feel for putting money on the line even though its only small amounts.I use this Alpari micro to test out ideas in trading and it makes things real.
Your reversal lines are much appreciated.I use them in context with my Supply/Demand areas and I have had good results so far. As far as stops are concerned I tend to favour a 50 pt stop to allow some room to manouvre but with a view to get out quickly or tighten as the case may be. Hope you have a good week, Best Regards Jeff . George
Hey Jeff:
Appreciate your hard work in getting the videos and audios set-up. Love your weekly reversals as they work seamlessly and at times to the dot. Just as Kevin in an earlier comment, will you ever impart your wisdom in the way you come up with the market reversal.
I have never traded with a demo when I first started simply because it will tend to cloud up your judgement as you would know that you are playing with monopoly money, like it or not your super computer (your brains) will know no matter how much you try and think otherwise. So go live, be patience and safe. Oh, plus listen to Dr. Jeff :-) That's my take on demo account trading.
What template do you use in your website
I don't use any template as I use a basic chart with MACD and Stochastics. The market reversal lines I add in by hand each week.
You made some good points here.Keep us posting. What template do you use in your blog
Great info, thanks for useful article. I'm waiting for more
I want to start blogging too, what do you think, which blog cms is good for noob?